Term For The Day

What is Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)

The branch of the Federal Reserve Board that determines the direction of monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of the board of governors, which has seven members, and five reserve bank presidents. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York serves continuously, while the presidents of the other reserve banks rotate their service of one-year terms.

Forex Trading Rules: No Excuses, Ever

Our boss once invited us into his office to discuss a trading program that he wanted to set up. "I have one rule only," he noted. Looking us straight in the eye, he said, "no excuses."

Instantly we understood what he meant. Our boss wasn't concerned about traders booking losses. Losses are a given part of trading and anyone who engages in this enterprise understands and accepts that fact. What our boss wanted to avoid were the mistakes made by traders who deviated from their trading plans. It was perfectly acceptable to sustain a drawdown of 10% if it was the result of five consecutive losing trades that were stopped out at a 2% loss each. However, it was inexcusable to lose 10% on one trade because the trader refused to cut his losses, or worse yet, added to a position beyond his risk limits. Our boss knew that the first scenario was just a regular part of business, while the second one could ultimately blow up of the entire account.

The Need For Rationalization
In the quintessential '80s movie, "The Big Chill", Jeff Goldblum's character tells Kevin Kline's that "rationalization is the most powerful thing on earth. As human beings we can go for a long time without food or water, but we can't go a day without a rationalization."

This quote has strikes a chord with us because it captures the ethos behind the "no excuses" rule. As traders, we must take responsibility for our mistakes. In a business where you either adapt or die, the refusal to acknowledge and correct your shortcomings will ultimately lead to disaster.

Case In Point
Markets can and will do anything. Witness the blowup of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). At one time, it was one of the most prestigious hedge funds in the world, whose partners included several Nobel Prize winners. In 1998, LTCM went bankrupt, nearly bringing the global financial markets to its knees when a series of complicated interest rate plays generated billions of dollars worth of losses in a matter of days. Instead of accepting the fact that they were wrong, LTCM traders continued to double up on their positions, believing that the markets would eventually turn their way.

It took the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a series of top-tier investment banks to step in and stem the tide of losses until the portfolio positions could be unwound without further damage. In post-debacle interviews, most LTCM traders refused to acknowledge their mistakes, stating that the LTCM blowup was the result of extremely unusual circumstances unlikely to ever happen again. LTCM traders never learned the "no excuses" rule, and it cost them their capital.

No Excuses
The "no excuses" rule is most applicable to those times when the trader does not understand the price action of the markets. If, for example, you are short a currency because you anticipate negative fundamental news and that news occurs, but the currency rallies instead, you must get out right away. If you do not understand what is going on in the market, it is always better to step aside and not trade. That way, you will not have to come up with excuses for why you blew up your account. No excuses. Ever. That's the rule professional traders live by.

Source: Investopedia

Forex Trading Rules: Risk Can Be Predetermined; Reward Is Unpredictable

If there is one inviolable rule in trading, it must be "stick to your stops". Before entering every trade, you must know your pain threshold. This is the best way to make sure that your losses are controlled and that you do not become too emotional with your trading.

Trading is hard; there are more unsuccessful traders than there are successful ones. But more often than not, traders fail not because their ideas are wrong, but because they became too emotional in the process. This failure stems from the fact that they closed out their trades too early, or they let their losses run too extensively. Risk MUST be predetermined. The most rational time to consider risk is before you place the trade - when your mind is unclouded and your decisions are unbiased by price action. On the other hand, if you have a trade on, you want to stick it out until it becomes a winner, but unfortunately that does not always happen. You need to figure out what the worst-case scenario is for the trade, and place your stop based on a monetary or technical level. Once again, we stress that risk MUST be predetermined before you enter into the trade and you MUST stick to its parameters. Do not let your emotions force you to change your stop prematurely.

The Risk
Every trade, no matter how certain you are of its outcome, is simply an educated guess. Nothing is certain in trading. There are too many external factors that can shift the movement in a currency. Sometimes fundamentals can shift the trading environment, and other times you simply have unaccountable factors, such as option barriers, the daily exchange rate fixing, central bank buying etc. Make sure you are prepared for these uncertainties by setting your stop early on.

The Reward
Reward, on the other hand, is unknown. When a currency moves, the move can be huge or small. Money management becomes extremely important in this case. Referencing our rule of "never let a winner turn into a loser", we advocate trading multiple lots. This can be done on a more manageable basis using mini-accounts. This way, you can lock in gains on the first lot and move your stop to breakeven on the second lot - making sure that you are only playing with the house's money - and ride the rest of the move using the second lot.

Make the Trend Your Friend
The FX market is a trending market. Trends can last for days, weeks or even months. This is a primary reason why most black boxes in the FX market focus exclusively on trends. They believe that any trend moves they catch can offset any whipsaw losses made in range-trading markets. Although we believe that range trading can also yield good profits, we recognize the reason why most large money is focused on looking for trends. Therefore, if we are in a range-bound market, we bank our gain using the first lot and get stopped out at breakeven on the second, still yielding profits. However, if a trend does emerge, we keep holding the second lot into what could potentially become a big winner.

Half of trading is about strategy, the other half is undoubtedly about money management. Even if you have losing trades, you need to understand them and learn from your mistakes. No strategy is foolproof and works 100% of the time. However, if the failure is in line with a strategy that has worked more often than it has failed for you in the past, then accept that loss and move on. The key is to make your overall trading approach meaningful but to make any individual trade meaningless. Once you have mastered this skill, your emotions should not get the best of you, regardless of whether you are trading $1,000 or $100,000. Remember: In trading, winning is frequently a question of luck, but losing is always a matter of skill.

Source: Investopedia